A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
