Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
